Laso's Efes: 18 Possessions Squandered in Belgrade and the Mike James Gamble

The last shot missed. The scoreboard in Belgrade stopped at a one-point margin, Efes had the ball for the final possession and could not score. That is the image that will be replayed on every highlight reel. But I sat and rewound the first half three times, and this game was decided long before that: Efes turned the ball over 8 times and allowed Kızılyıldız 10 offensive rebounds — 18 extra possessions handed to the opponent in a single half.

A team that concedes 18 extra possessions in the opening half usually loses by double digits. Efes lost by one. That paradox deserves unpacking, because it says far more about the project Pablo Laso is building in Istanbul than about a missed shot.

Context: a project still searching for its shape

Efes entered this season with a roster that had been significantly reworked over the summer. The front office brought in a group of new guards along with a passing big man — referred to as Dario — as a connective piece in the system. The stated direction was blunt: increase creativity. That is the polite way of saying the team is moving from basketball built on individual class to basketball built on ball movement.

This is also a club coming off an injury-ravaged season, which is precisely why the summer plan was proactive. The problem is that the EuroLeague is not a league that lets you build while you experiment. It is a low-pace environment where half-court basketball dominates, where each possession is worth close to a point, and where elite defenses punish mistakes with patience rather than speed.

Kızılyıldız, also known as Red Star Belgrade, is exactly that kind of opponent. The Serbian club does not need you to play well to beat you; it only needs you to drop the ball yourself.

Core: 18 possessions, and what they cost

Based on my experience covering EuroLeague games across many seasons, two categories of error cost more than any other in European half-court basketball: turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds. Both take a possession away from you and hand it to the opponent — in a league where scoring comes from accumulating possessions, that is a slow form of self-destruction.

Efes committed both, heavily, in the same half. Eight turnovers mean eight possessions vanished without a shot attempt. Ten offensive rebounds allowed mean ten successful defensive stands were extended. Combined, Kızılyıldız gained 18 possessions that should never have existed.

At roughly one point per possession in the EuroLeague, 18 extra possessions are equivalent to a double-digit margin being erased before the second half begins. Efes survived the first half down by one, which is astonishing — and also a warning.

Why so many? There are two plausible explanations, and neither can be confirmed from a box score alone. First, a defense using drop coverage — the center sagging back to protect the rim against the pick-and-roll — is vulnerable on the glass if the guards fail to contest position. Second, a switching defense against a more physical, more athletic opponent generates repeated mismatches. Laso himself cited 'athletics' as a summer priority after the game, a signal that he knows exactly where the hole is.

On offense, signing a group of guards plus a passing big points to a system heavy on Spain pick-and-roll — an action featuring a ball handler, a screener, and a third player using the screen to receive a pass — and dribble hand-offs (DHO, a quick handoff after a screen). That is how you generate open shots without relying on isolation drives. But such a system needs time, needs guards who understand each other, and above all needs someone to set the tempo.

And that is where the story turns.

Mike James, and the void nobody can fill

Mike James — born in 2026, now past 34 — is the axis of everything at Efes. He is the ball handler, the tempo setter, the closer of final possessions. In Belgrade, he went down injured. Speaking after the game, the Efes head coach admitted the situation 'doesn't look good,' and the club sent him back to Istanbul for medical checks.

For a 34-year-old guard who lives on explosiveness, any significant injury means a longer absence and a lower athletic ceiling. That is the law of age in basketball, not pessimism. And it raises an uncomfortable question: if the summer plan was to increase creativity, why does the system still depend on one man?

Contrarian: don't praise the character of a team that shot itself in the foot

I know the most comfortable story to tell right now. Efes lost by one on the road against a tough opponent, after spotting them 18 possessions, after losing their star to injury. It sounds like a team with character. And yes, they have character — they still manufactured a final possession to win, and that deserves credit. I will also say it plainly: Kızılyıldız is a genuinely respected defensive team, and losing in Belgrade is not a sign of decline.

But I am not buying the 'character' story. A team that concedes 18 extra possessions in one half does not have a character problem; it has a structural problem. That margin for error will not kill them in October. It will kill them in April, in the knockout rounds, when every opponent is Kızılyıldız and every mistake is remembered.

And here is what I want to say about the summer signings. I was once savaged by everyone for backing an unknown player — wait until I finish the story. Efes' new guards need time, and my instinct is to protect them from early judgment. But I cannot ignore a simple fact either: if those contracts were signed to reduce the dependency on Mike James, they just failed their first test — not because they played badly, but because the system has not yet given them the keys.

There is a line I always remind myself of: a month of quietly rewinding tape taught me more than ten years of loudly asserting. I rewound Efes' first half three times, and what I learned was not in the final shot. It was in the 18 possessions nobody wants to rewatch.

Takeaway: what to track

People remember the declaration of war. I want them to stay for the discoveries.

Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the results of Mike James' medical checks in Istanbul will shape the entire Efes story this month. A bad result is not just injury news; it is a verdict on a project that has only just begun.

In three to four days, the weekend Turkish BSL game will be the real test. And here is my verifiable prediction: if Efes turn the ball over more than 15 times again next game, the problem is no longer a bad night. It is the system. If they stay under 10 turnovers and win convincingly, Belgrade was just an accident for a team still learning to play together.

I have not gone back to Laso's classic Real Madrid games for nostalgia, but to prove one thing: what European basketball is losing is patience with unfinished projects. Efes is such a project. The question is not whether they are wrong — they are. The question is whether they will have enough time to fix it, in a league that grants nobody time.